Sorulmas\u0131 gereken ilk soru \u015fu; bu sava\u015f ger\u00e7ekten \u2018aniden\u2019 mi ba\u015flad\u0131? Uluslararas\u0131 krizler bir sabah uyan\u0131p patlamaz. Birikir. Dosyalar, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, pazarl\u0131klar, tehditler, k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgiler\u2026 Hepsi bir g\u00fcn bir noktada kesi\u015fir. Ve o kesi\u015fim genelde petrol\u00fcn \u00fczerinde olur.<\/p>\n
PETROL\u00dcN \u00dcZER\u0130NDEK\u0130 SATRAN\u00c7 TAHTASI<\/strong><\/p>\n K\u00f6rfez, d\u00fcnya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir arter. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kilitlenirse, sadece Ortado\u011fu de\u011fil; Avrupa\u2019dan \u00c7in\u2019e kadar t\u00fcm \u00fcretim zincirleri sars\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n ABD\u2019nin askeri y\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u011f\u0131 tesad\u00fcf de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc mesele sadece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer kapasitesi de\u011fil; enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcd\u00fcr. Enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kontrol eden, k\u00fcresel enflasyonu, \u00fcretimi, hatta se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 etkiler.<\/p>\n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n son misillemeleri de bu nedenle do\u011frudan semboliktir. Sadece \u0130srail\u2019i de\u011fil; K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki Amerikan \u00fcslerini hedef alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n vurdu\u011fu veya hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirilen ba\u015fl\u0131ca ABD askeri varl\u0131klar\u0131 \u015funlard\u0131r.<\/p>\n Al Udeid Hava \u00dcss\u00fc (Katar) \u2013 ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck hava komuta merkezi.<\/strong><\/p>\n Naval Support Activity (Bahreyn) \u2013 ABD 5\u2019nci Filosu\u2019nun merkezi.<\/strong><\/p>\n Al Dhafra Air Base (Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri).<\/strong><\/p>\n Ali Al Salem Air Base (Kuveyt).<\/strong><\/p>\n Suudi Arabistan\u2019daki ABD askeri konu\u015flanmalar\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki Amerikan askeri varl\u0131klar\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu tablo bize \u015funu g\u00f6steriyor; sava\u015f art\u0131k iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda de\u011fil. B\u00f6lgesel bir eksen sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f durumda. Ve b\u00f6lgesel sava\u015flar, kontrol edilmezse k\u00fcresel sava\u015fa evrilir.<\/p>\n EPSTEIN DOSYASININ G\u00d6LGES\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n Kriz patlad\u0131ktan sonra uluslararas\u0131 kulislerde bir ba\u015fka ba\u015fl\u0131k dola\u015f\u0131ma sokuldu; Jeffrey Epstein dosyas\u0131.<\/p>\n Jeffrey Epstein dosyas\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ismin ad\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. Bunlar aras\u0131nda ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump da bulunuyordu. Dosyan\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, \u2018acaba baz\u0131 dosyalar uluslararas\u0131 siyasette bask\u0131 arac\u0131 olarak m\u0131 kullan\u0131l\u0131yor?\u2019 sorusunu g\u00fcndeme getirdi.<\/p>\n Burada dikkatli olmak gerekir. Elimizde sava\u015f\u0131n do\u011frudan Epstein dosyas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kan\u0131tlayan somut veri yoktur. Ancak k\u00fcresel siyasette \u015fantaj, dosya, istihbarat ve g\u00fc\u00e7 pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi ink\u00e2r edilemez.<\/p>\n \u0130srail ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki stratejik ba\u011f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu t\u00fcr dosyalar\u0131n bask\u0131 unsuru olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131p kullan\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorusu ister istemez ak\u0131llara geliyor.<\/p>\n Bu bir komplo teorisi de\u011fil; g\u00fc\u00e7 siyasetinin do\u011fas\u0131d\u0131r. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde ahlaki de\u011fil, stratejik davran\u0131l\u0131r. Ancak \u015fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi atlamayal\u0131m; bu sava\u015f\u0131n temel motivasyonu bir dosya de\u011fil; enerji, g\u00fcvenlik mimarisi ve b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuz m\u00fccadelesidir. Epstein dosyas\u0131 varsa bile, bu yang\u0131n\u0131n kibriti de\u011fil; olsa olsa duman\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n 3\u2019NC\u00dc D\u00dcNYA SAVA\u015eI E\u015e\u0130\u011e\u0130 M\u0130, KONTROLL\u00dc KAOS MU?<\/strong><\/p>\n \u015eu an i\u00e7in d\u00fcnya iki blok halinde fiilen sahada de\u011fil. Rusya ve \u00c7in do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n i\u00e7inde de\u011filler. Ancak K\u00f6rfez\u2019in kilitlenmesi \u00c7in\u2019i, NATO\u2019nun geni\u015flemesi Rusya\u2019y\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiler.<\/p>\n As\u0131l tehlike burada. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc; \u0130ran kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 olmadan \u00e7\u00f6kmez. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Irak, Suriye ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki vekil g\u00fc\u00e7leri h\u00e2l\u00e2 etkin. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ABD \u00fcsleri \u00fczerinden fiilen sava\u015f\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131.<\/p>\n M\u00fcsl\u00fcman \u00fclkelerin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc Washington\u2019un askeri lojisti\u011fine destek veriyor. Ramazan ay\u0131nday\u0131z. Ama \u0130slam co\u011frafyas\u0131nda \u00fcsler a\u00e7\u0131k, pistler haz\u0131r, hava sahalar\u0131 m\u00fcsait. Bu da ayr\u0131 bir ironidir.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tablo daha da hassas. Van ve Hakk\u00e2ri semalar\u0131nda hissedilen hareketlilik psikolojik bir gerilim yarat\u0131yor. \u0130ran-T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n uzunlu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olas\u0131 bir g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgas\u0131, ticaret daralmas\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenlik riski ciddi bir ihtimaldir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczde Newroz var. \u0130ran\u2019da tatil uzun. Van ekonomisi bu hareketlilikten beslenir. Ancak sava\u015f uzarsa s\u0131n\u0131r illeri ilk darbeyi yer.<\/p>\n Bir ba\u015fka soru; \u0130ran T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki NATO varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hedef al\u0131r m\u0131? Bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in b\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m, do\u011frudan NATO\u2019yu sava\u015fa sokaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal. Ancak sava\u015f\u0131n ilk kural\u0131 \u015fudur; \u0130lk g\u00fcn s\u00f6ylenenler, onuncu g\u00fcn ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini yitirir.<\/p>\n Bu analiz kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m da tablo buydu. Yaz\u0131ma noktay\u0131 koyaca\u011f\u0131m anda ise, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dini lideri Ayetullah Ali Hamaney\u2019in \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc haberi geldi. \u0130ran\u2019da hem sevin\u00e7 hem de yas var. Bu da g\u00f6steriyor ki, uluslararas\u0131 krizlerde saatler bile tarihi de\u011fi\u015ftirir. \u015eu an g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u015fey bir d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil. Ama k\u00fcresel sistemin \u00e7atlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir e\u015fikteyiz.<\/p>\n Petrol yollar\u0131 ate\u015f alt\u0131nda.<\/strong><\/p>\n Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan.<\/strong><\/p>\n Blokla\u015fma derinle\u015fiyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n M\u00fcsl\u00fcman \u00fclkeler b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f.<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran y\u0131prat\u0131l\u0131yor ama diz \u00e7\u00f6km\u00fc\u015f de\u011fil.<\/strong><\/p>\n ABD geri ad\u0131m atm\u0131yor.<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130srail geri \u00e7ekilmiyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu bir son de\u011fil.<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu, yeni bir d\u00f6nemin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilir.<\/strong><\/p>\n K\u00f6rfez yanarsa sadece petrol de\u011fil, k\u00fcresel d\u00fczen de yanar.<\/strong><\/p>\n Ve biz s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n hemen yan\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nday\u0131z.<\/strong><\/p>\n Sevgiyle kal\u0131n.<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Haziran 2025\u2019te ya\u015fanan ve literat\u00fcre \u201812 G\u00fcn Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 olarak ge\u00e7en \u0130ran-\u0130srail \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, asl\u0131nda bir fragmand\u0131. As\u0131l film \u015fimdi ba\u015flad\u0131. Amerika\u2019n\u0131n K\u00f6rfez\u2019e neredeyse donanmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc y\u0131\u011fmas\u0131, hava g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ileri \u00fcslerle tahkim etmesi ve \u0130srail\u2019le e\u015f zamanl\u0131 operasyonlara giri\u015fmesi; bunun spontane bir kriz de\u011fil, planl\u0131 bir haz\u0131rl\u0131k oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":112550,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-112549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-yazarlar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112549","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=112549"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112549\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":112551,"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112549\/revisions\/112551"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/112550"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=112549"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=112549"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mardinhaberyolu.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=112549"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}